In a recent survey conducted by The Wall Street Journal, a majority of economists indicated that former President Donald Trump’s policies are more likely to reignite inflation compared to those of President Joe Biden. Out of 50 economists surveyed, 28 believed that Trump’s proposed plans pose a higher risk of returning to high inflation levels, whereas only 8 saw Biden as the greater threat. The remaining 14 economists considered the difference between the two agendas to be negligible.

Tariffs and Immigration: Key Concerns

Economists and Wall Street analysts highlight Trump’s hardline tariff proposals as a major concern. Trump’s plan includes a 10% tariff on all imports and a specific rate of 60% to 100% on Chinese goods. These tariffs could increase production costs, ultimately leading to higher consumer prices. Additionally, Trump’s stringent immigration policies could reduce the influx of immigrant workers, impacting the labor market without addressing inflation.

Spending and Federal Deficits

Some economists who view Biden as a bigger inflation risk point to his large spending packages. However, the survey found that 51% of economists believe federal deficits will rise more under Trump, who intends to make his first-term tax cuts permanent. In contrast, 22% think the same for Biden, citing the Democrats’ historical support for government spending.

Political Reactions

The Biden campaign has already begun using the survey results to bolster the President’s reelection bid. Sarafina Chitika, a spokesperson for the Biden-Harris 2024 campaign, emphasized the survey’s warning about Trump’s policy agenda. The Trump campaign did not respond to requests for comment.

Inflation Trends and Political Implications

The survey’s release coincided with the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, showing a 0.1% decrease in inflation for June, marking the first month-over-month decline in over four years. This positive trend offers a glimmer of hope for an economy striving to recover from the pandemic-induced inflation surge.

However, Biden’s political future remains uncertain. His weak performance in a recent debate against Trump has led to calls from some Democrats for a new nominee. Despite this, Biden remains steadfast in his decision to run, focusing on Trump’s economic plans.

Economists’ Perspective

While the survey supports Biden’s argument against Trump’s economic policies, many economists caution that a president’s influence over the economy is limited. The economy’s health is influenced by a complex mix of policies and decisions from the president, Congress, independent government agencies, and external factors beyond anyone’s control.