Kamala Harris Gains Momentum as 2024 Presidential Race Shifts
A surge in Democratic enthusiasm and a double-digit increase in popularity have propelled Vice President Kamala Harris to the forefront of the 2024 presidential race, according to a new NBC News poll. Harris’ favorability rating has jumped by 16 points since July, marking the most significant increase for any political figure in NBC News polling since George W. Bush’s post-9/11 surge.
This shift in the race extends beyond poll numbers. Harris now holds an edge over former President Donald Trump in critical areas, including competence, effectiveness, and overall health. These are areas where Trump previously led in matchups against President Joe Biden. Harris is also viewed as the candidate who better represents “change” and can steer the country in the right direction.
Poll Results Show a Clear Shift
The poll, conducted from September 13-17, revealed Harris with a 5-point lead over Trump among registered voters, 49% to 44%. This represents a notable shift from July’s poll, where Trump held a narrow lead over Biden. Harris’ surge is attributed to multiple factors, including Biden’s withdrawal from the race in July and recent political events.
Harris’ lead grows to 6 points when factoring in third-party candidates such as Robert F. Kennedy Jr., Jill Stein, and Libertarian Chase Oliver, with Harris at 47% and Trump at 41%. These results mark the best performance for the Democratic ticket since mid-2023.
Harris’ Key Advantages
The NBC News poll highlights Harris’ significant gains among key demographics. She holds strong support among Black voters (85%-7%), voters aged 18-34 (57%-34%), and women (58%-37%). Harris also leads among white voters with college degrees (59%-38%) and independents (43%-35%). These figures reflect more support than Biden enjoyed during his 2020 campaign, particularly among younger voters and women.
Conversely, Trump continues to lead among men (52%-40%) and white voters without college degrees (61%-33%). However, these leads have shrunk since Biden departed from the race, signaling a potential shift in Republican voter loyalty.
Harris vs. Trump on Key Issues
Harris holds decisive leads over Trump on several key issues, including protecting immigrant rights (+28 points), abortion rights (+21 points), and fitness for the presidency (+20 points). Voters also view Harris as having the right temperament and representing change, with a 9-point advantage over Trump in that category.
Trump maintains an edge on economic issues, leading by 21 points on securing the border and by 9 points on the economy. However, these leads have decreased significantly from earlier polls when Biden was still in the race. Voters’ concerns over inflation and the cost of living remain central, with two-thirds of respondents saying their family income is falling behind rising costs.
A Historic Popularity Boost for Harris
Harris’ favorability has seen a historic rise, increasing from 32% positive in July to 48% in the latest poll. This 16-point leap is the largest for any major-party presidential candidate in NBC News polling history, excluding exceptional circumstances like George W. Bush’s post-9/11 boost. This surge underscores the significant shift in the 2024 presidential race. In contrast, Trump’s favorability remains virtually unchanged, at 40% positive and 53% negative.
Challenges Ahead for Harris
Despite Harris’ recent gains, the poll reveals potential challenges for her candidacy. While Harris is viewed as a change-maker, 40% of voters express concern that her presidency would continue Biden’s policies. This perception could be a vulnerability in a race where voters are eager for new directions. Additionally, with 65% of voters believing the country is on the wrong track, there are echoes of voter dissatisfaction from previous elections where the party in power was ousted. These challenges highlight the complexity of the race and the need for Harris to navigate them effectively.
Other Key Poll Findings
The poll shows a tight race for Congress, with 48% of voters favoring a Democratic-controlled Congress compared to 46% preferring Republican control. This close competition could have significant implications for the 2024 presidential race, as the party that gains control of Congress could influence the policy agenda of the next president. This mirrors the deep polarization of the electorate seen in recent years.
Additionally, the poll tested voters’ opinions on Project 2025, a conservative policy blueprint linked to former Trump officials. Most voters (57%) view the plan negatively, indicating its potential to become a liability for the Republican campaign.
Conclusion
With just over six weeks until Election Day, Kamala Harris has gained significant momentum, reshaping the 2024 presidential race. While she holds advantages in critical demographics and several issues, the outcome remains uncertain in a deeply divided electorate. As the race heats up, Harris and Trump will continue to navigate the shifting political landscape in the campaign’s final stretch, adding to the suspense and anticipation of the race’s outcome.