5 AM Update – BULLETIN: Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Targets Florida Gulf Coast with Hurricane and Storm Surge Warnings

Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
500 AM EDT Tue Sep 24, 2024

Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches Expanded as System Strengthens

The National Hurricane Center has updated its advisory on Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine. The system continues to move northwestward across the northwestern Caribbean, with hurricane watches and storm surge warnings now in effect for significant portions of Florida’s Gulf Coast.

Location and Movement:

  • Location: 18.9N, 83.0W
  • Distance: Approximately 120 miles (195 km) WSW of Grand Cayman; 240 miles (390 km) SSE of the western tip of Cuba
  • Movement: Northwest at 8 mph (13 km/h)
  • Maximum Sustained Winds: 35 mph (55 km/h)
  • Minimum Central Pressure: 1001 mb (29.56 inches)

Storm Surge Watch Expanded
The watch has been extended to include more areas from Indian Pass, Florida, southward to Bonita Beach, encompassing Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor, as the threat of storm surge intensifies.

Hurricane Watch Issued for More Florida Areas
A Hurricane Watch is now in effect for the Gulf Coast of Florida from Englewood to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay. Residents in these areas are urged to begin preparing for potentially dangerous conditions.

Key Changes in Watches and Warnings:

  • Hurricane Watch: Now covers the Gulf Coast of Florida, from Englewood north to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay.
  • Storm Surge Watch: Extended from Indian Pass south to Bonita Beach, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.
  • Tropical Storm Watch: Covers areas from Indian Pass to the Walton/Bay County Line and from Bonita Beach to Englewood.

Watches and Warnings in Effect:

  • Storm Surge Watch: Indian Pass to Flamingo, including Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor.
  • Hurricane Watch: Cabo Catoche to Tulum, Mexico; the Cuban province of Pinar del Rio; and from Englewood to Indian Pass, including Tampa Bay.
  • Tropical Storm Warning: Grand Cayman; Rio Lagartos to Tulum, Mexico; Cuban provinces of Artemisa, Pinar del Rio, and the Isle of Youth.
  • Tropical Storm Watch: Dry Tortugas, Lower Keys west of the Seven Mile Bridge, Flamingo to Englewood, and west of Indian Pass to Walton Bay County Line.

Updated Watches and Warnings:
A Storm Surge Watch now indicates a heightened risk of life-threatening inundation, particularly in the Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor areas, within the next 48 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the next 48 hours for areas along the Florida Gulf Coast. Preparations should be underway for potential impacts by late Wednesday.

A Tropical Storm Watch indicates that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch areas in Florida by Wednesday and Thursday.

Hazards and Forecast:

Rainfall:

  • Western Cuba and the Cayman Islands: 4 to 8 inches of rain, with isolated totals of up to 12 inches.
  • Eastern Yucatan Peninsula: 2 to 4 inches, with isolated amounts over 6 inches.
  • Southeastern U.S.: 3 to 6 inches of rain, with isolated totals of 10 inches, leading to possible flash flooding and urban flooding.

Storm Surge:
Dangerous storm surge is now forecast along the Florida Gulf Coast, with water levels potentially rising by:

  • Ochlockonee River to Chassahowitzka: 10 to 15 feet
  • Chassahowitzka to Anclote River: 6 to 10 feet
  • Indian Pass to Ochlockonee River: 5 to 10 feet
  • Tampa Bay: 5 to 8 feet
  • Other areas along the coast: Surge levels up to 7 feet

Winds:

  • Hurricane conditions are possible in the watch areas of Cuba, Mexico, and Florida by Wednesday.
  • Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin today in Cuba and Mexico, with Florida seeing these conditions by Wednesday night.

Surf:
Swells generated by this system will continue to impact southern Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula over the next two days, with dangerous surf and rip currents expected along Florida’s Gulf Coast by Wednesday and Thursday.

Key Messages:

  • Residents along the Florida Gulf Coast should monitor the system closely and begin preparations for hurricane-force winds and storm surge.
  • The National Hurricane Center continues to track the system, and additional updates and warnings are expected throughout the day.