BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Milton Advisory Number 4
National Weather Service – National Hurricane Center Miami, FL
4:00 AM CDT, Sunday, October 6, 2024

…NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT EN ROUTE TO INVESTIGATE TROPICAL STORM MILTON…
…POTENTIALLY LIFE-THREATENING IMPACTS LOOMING FOR THE FLORIDA WEST COAST…

Summary of 4:00 AM CDT Information

  • Location: 23.0°N, 94.9°W
  • Distance: 355 miles WNW of Progreso, Mexico
    845 miles WSW of Tampa, Florida
  • Maximum Sustained Winds: 50 mph (85 km/h)
  • Movement: East at 5 mph (7 km/h)
  • Minimum Central Pressure: 1003 MB (29.62 inches)

Watches and Warnings

  • Tropical Storm Watch in effect for:
    • Celestun to Cancun (Yucatan Peninsula)

Interests across the Yucatan Peninsula, Florida Peninsula, Florida Keys, and northwestern Bahamas should monitor developments closely. Your safety is paramount—stay informed and heed local advisories. Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches are expected for parts of Florida later today.

Discussion and Outlook
At 4:00 AM CDT, Tropical Storm Milton was centered near 23.0°N, 94.9°W, moving east at 5 mph (7 km/h). Milton is expected to shift east-northeast today, with faster northeastward movement predicted later. The storm is projected to cross the Gulf of Mexico and approach the west coast of Florida by midweek.

Milton’s winds have strengthened to 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts, and further intensification is expected. The storm is forecast to reach hurricane status tonight, with the potential to develop into a major hurricane—Category 3 or higher—with wind speeds of at least 111 mph. Milton could bring destructive winds and storm surges as it approaches the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico.

Hazards Affecting Land

  • Rainfall:
    Heavy rainfall, with accumulations of 5-8 inches and isolated totals up to 12 inches, is expected across the Florida Peninsula and Keys through Wednesday. This could lead to flash floods, urban flooding, and river flooding. The northern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba could experience 2-4 inches of rain.
  • Wind:
    Tropical storm conditions may affect areas under the Tropical Storm Watch in the Yucatan Peninsula on Monday night or Tuesday.
  • Surf:
    Swells from the storm will impact the southwestern Gulf of Mexico today and will spread across much of the Gulf Coast early next week. These swells could generate life-threatening rip currents. Consult your local weather offices for updated advisories.