BULLETIN: Hurricane Milton Advisory Number 6

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
400 PM CDT Sun Oct 06, 2024

…MILTON CONTINUES TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY…
A HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA…

Summary of Information:

  • Location: 22.4N, 93.8W
  • About: 275 miles (440 km) WNW of Progreso, Mexico
    805 miles (1295 km) WSW of Tampa, Florida
  • Maximum Sustained Winds: 85 mph (140 km/h)
  • Present Movement: East at 7 mph (11 km/h)
  • Minimum Central Pressure: 983 MB (29.03 inches)

Watches and Warnings:

  • Hurricane Watch: Celestun to Cabo Catoche, Yucatan Peninsula
  • Tropical Storm Warning: Celestun to Cancun, Yucatan Peninsula

A Hurricane Watch indicates that hurricane conditions are possible within 48 hours. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected within 36 hours.

Residents of the Yucatan Peninsula, Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas are strongly advised to monitor this system closely. The situation is expected to evolve rapidly, with Storm Surge and Hurricane Watches expected for Florida by tonight or early Monday.

Discussion:

As of 4:00 PM CDT, the center of Hurricane Milton is located at 22.4N, 93.8W, moving eastward at 7 mph. The storm is expected to continue on this eastward track, with a faster northeastward motion expected by Tuesday and Wednesday. On its forecast path, Milton is expected to pass just north of the Yucatan Peninsula and then move across the southern Gulf of Mexico before approaching the west coast of Florida by midweek.

Milton’s maximum sustained winds have reached 85 mph, and it is forecast to intensify rapidly over the next day. It is likely to become a major hurricane by Monday. This development poses serious risks, and residents in the potential impact areas should be prepared.

  • Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 25 miles from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extend up to 80 miles.

Hazards Affecting Land:

  • Storm Surge: Water levels could rise by 2 to 4 feet along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula in areas of onshore flow.
  • Rainfall:
    • Florida Peninsula and Keys: 5 to 10 inches of rain, with isolated totals up to 15 inches, increasing the risk of flash and urban flooding.
    • Northern Yucatan Peninsula: 2 to 4 inches of rain are expected.
  • Wind: Tropical storm conditions could begin as early as Monday morning in the warning area, with hurricane conditions possible by Monday afternoon.
  • Surf: Life-threatening surf and rip current conditions are expected to affect much of the Gulf Coast within the next few days.