Trump’s Social Security Campaign Pledge Could Accelerate Trust Fund Insolvency, Experts Warn, with 33% Benefit Cuts if Elected (CRFB)
Former President Donald Trump’s recent campaign proposals could hasten the insolvency of the Social Security trust fund, potentially resulting in a 33% reduction in benefits if he is elected, according to a new analysis from the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget (CRFB). Although Trump’s campaign claims his plans would strengthen Social Security, the CRFB remains skeptical, warning that his policies could undermine the program’s financial stability.
Trump’s Campaign Proposals and Social Security
Trump’s campaign spokesman, Karoline Leavitt, responded to the analysis, stating that Trump’s policies on “unleashing American energy, slashing job-killing regulations, and adopting pro-growth America First tax and trade policies” would put Social Security “on stronger footing for generations to come.”
However, the CRFB, which advocates for reducing federal deficits, expressed doubts. The group noted that while energy expansion could provide economic benefits, it is unlikely to have a significant impact on the Social Security trust fund. The CRFB’s report stated that “unrealistically fast economic growth” would be required to address the program’s existing funding gap.
The analysis is based on Trump’s promises to eliminate taxes on Social Security benefits, overtime pay, and tipped income. Additionally, Trump’s proposals to impose tariffs on all imports and deport millions of immigrants—many of whom contribute to Social Security but do not receive benefits—could further complicate the program’s financial outlook.
Impact on Social Security Insolvency
According to the CRFB, Social Security would become insolvent under Trump’s proposals by 2031—three years earlier than the current projection from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO). At that point, the program would face across-the-board cuts of 33%, a steeper reduction than the 23% decrease the CBO had projected.
If these policies are enacted, beneficiaries could see a significant decrease in income. The average monthly benefit of $1,907 in 2024 would be reduced by $629, leaving recipients with just $1,278. Such a reduction in income would have a profound effect on millions of Americans.
Social Security is currently paying out more in benefits than it collects in revenue, dipping into its trust fund reserves to cover the shortfall. If the trust fund depletes, the government would be forced to reduce benefits.
The Financial Toll of Trump’s Plans
The CRFB report estimates that Trump’s plan to eliminate income taxes on Social Security benefits would cost the program about $950 billion over the next decade. Additionally, removing FICA taxes on overtime pay and tipped income would create another $900 billion shortfall, and deporting millions of undocumented immigrants—many of whom contribute to the system—could result in a further $400 million funding gap.
Altogether, the CRFB projects that Trump’s policies would add approximately $2.3 trillion to the program’s deficit between 2026 and 2035, accelerating the trust fund’s depletion and necessitating the 33% reduction in benefits.
Critics Weigh In
In contrast, Vice President Kamala Harris’s campaign has emphasized her commitment to protecting Social Security. However, neither her team nor Trump has offered specific solutions to address the looming shortfall.
“Donald Trump’s agenda poses an imminent threat to Social Security, and seniors could have their benefits cut by a third,” said Harris campaign spokesman Joe Costello. “Vice President Harris is the only candidate who will truly fight for seniors.”
What’s at Stake for Social Security
As Social Security faces increasing financial strain, proposals that cut revenue streams could exacerbate the crisis. While Trump’s promises to eliminate taxes on Social Security benefits might appeal to the roughly 40% of recipients who pay federal taxes on their benefits, the CRFB warns that such plans would further destabilize the program.
With Social Security projected to face insolvency within the next decade, experts urge candidates to present clear, viable solutions to safeguard the program’s future. Under Trump’s proposals, the program could face an even steeper shortfall, leading to significant benefit cuts that would affect millions of Americans. The need for viable solutions to this pressing issue has never been more urgent.