Hurricane Rafael Nearing Major Hurricane Strength as It Approaches Western Cuba

As of the latest advisory at 4:00 AM EST from the National Hurricane Center, Hurricane Rafael is intensifying as it nears western Cuba. Currently located near 20.6N latitude and 81.3W longitude, Rafael is about 120 miles southeast of the Isle of Youth and roughly 195 miles south-southeast of Havana, Cuba. This trajectory places Rafael on a direct path toward these areas, heightening the risk of severe weather. Rafael’s maximum sustained winds are 90 mph, and it is moving northwest at 14 mph.

Watches and Warnings

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the Cayman Islands and the Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth, indicating that these areas are expected to experience hurricane conditions within the next 24 hours. Tropical Storm Warnings cover parts of Cuba, including Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus, and Ciego de Avila, as well as the Lower and Middle Florida Keys, extending from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge and the Dry Tortugas. A Tropical Storm Watch remains in effect for the Cuban provinces of Camaguey and Las Tunas, suggesting the potential for tropical storm conditions within the next 48 hours.

Residents in these areas are advised to complete preparations immediately to protect lives and property. Those outside the immediate warning zones, including the southern Florida Peninsula, should stay updated on Rafael’s path and any further advisories.

Current Conditions and Forecast

Hurricane Rafael’s eye is projected to reach western Cuba later today, potentially reaching major hurricane strength before landfall. Forecasts indicate that Rafael will move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight, where it may weaken briefly over Cuba but is expected to regain hurricane status once it emerges. This implies that residents in the southeastern Gulf should prepare for possible hurricane conditions in the coming days.

Hurricane-force winds currently extend up to 15 miles from Rafael’s center, while tropical-storm-force winds reach up to 105 miles. Air Force reconnaissance aircraft report a central pressure of 970 mb, indicating the storm’s continued intensity.

Hazards Impacting Land

Wind: Hurricane conditions are expected imminently over the Cayman Islands and will impact western Cuba and the Isle of Youth later today. Tropical storm conditions are expected across west-central Cuba and the Lower and Middle Florida Keys today and tonight. Parts of central Cuba may also experience tropical storm conditions.

Rainfall: Heavy rainfall will affect the Western Caribbean, especially Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and western Cuba. Forecasts predict 4 to 7 inches of rain across the Cayman Islands and western Cuba, with isolated amounts up to 10 inches in higher terrain, leading to flash flooding and mudslides. Jamaica may receive an additional 1 to 3 inches from storm bands, while the Lower and Middle Florida Keys could see 1 to 3 inches.

Storm Surge: Storm surge could raise water levels by 1 to 3 feet above normal in the Cayman Islands tonight. In southern Cuba’s Hurricane Warning area, including the Isle of Youth, surges may reach 8 to 12 feet. The Dry Tortugas may see a rise of 1 to 3 feet, while the Lower Florida Keys could experience surges of 1 to 2 feet.

Tornadoes: A few tornadoes are possible today in the Florida Keys and far southwestern Florida mainland, adding another layer of risk.

Surf: Dangerous surf and rip currents will impact the western Caribbean over the next few days and are expected to spread across the Gulf of Mexico later in the week.

Residents in affected areas should remain alert, monitor official forecasts, and take all necessary precautions to ensure personal and property safety.