Tropical Storm Rafael Advisory

Issued by: NWS National Hurricane Center, Miami, FL
Advisory Number: 7
Date: 4:00 AM EST, Tuesday, November 5, 2024

Rafael Strengthens as It Approaches Jamaica

Current Position and Movement:
As of 4:00 AM EST, the center of Tropical Storm Rafael is located at latitude 17.0°N and longitude 78.0°W, approximately 105 miles (170 km) southwest of Kingston, Jamaica, and 265 miles (425 km) southeast of Grand Cayman. Rafael is moving northwest at 13 mph (20 km/h), a track expected to continue in the coming days. This path brings the storm near Jamaica this morning, over the Cayman Islands tonight, and close to western Cuba by Wednesday.

Storm Intensity:
Rafael currently has maximum sustained winds of 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. The storm is forecasted to intensify steadily over the next 24 to 36 hours, potentially reaching hurricane strength as it approaches the Cayman Islands. Additional strengthening is likely before Rafael makes landfall in Cuba. The minimum central pressure is 993 mb (29.33 inches), with tropical-storm-force winds extending up to 105 miles (165 km) from the storm’s center.

Watches and Warnings in Effect

Hurricane Warning:

  • Cayman Islands
  • Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and Isle of Youth

Tropical Storm Warning:

  • Jamaica
  • Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus, and Ciego de Avila

Tropical Storm Watch:

  • Cuban provinces of Camaguey and Las Tunas
  • Lower and Middle Florida Keys (from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge)
  • Dry Tortugas

A Hurricane Warning indicates the anticipated arrival of hurricane conditions within 36 hours, and residents in these areas should complete preparations immediately. A Tropical Storm Warning signals the expectation of tropical storm conditions, while a Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within 48 hours. Residents in affected areas are urged to take action promptly to protect life and property.

Impact Projections

Wind:
Hurricane conditions are expected in the Cayman Islands this afternoon, and in western Cuba and the Isle of Youth on Wednesday. Jamaica will experience tropical storm conditions through early afternoon today. By Wednesday, tropical storm conditions are likely in west-central Cuba, possibly extending further east and into the lower and middle Florida Keys. These wind impacts could significantly affect daily life and safety in these regions.

Rainfall:
Heavy rainfall is forecast across the Western Caribbean through Thursday, especially affecting Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and southern and western Cuba. These areas may see rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated amounts up to 10 inches in higher terrain, raising the risk of flash flooding and mudslides. Rainfall from Rafael will spread northward into Florida and parts of the Southeast U.S. later in the week, with the Lower and Middle Florida Keys forecasted to receive 1 to 3 inches.

Storm Surge:
Minor coastal flooding is possible in Jamaica tonight. The Cayman Islands may see water levels rise by 1 to 3 feet. Meanwhile, areas along Cuba’s southern coast in the hurricane warning zone could experience storm surge levels of 6 to 9 feet above normal tide levels. The Dry Tortugas and Lower Florida Keys could see water rises of 1 to 3 feet and 1 to 2 feet, respectively.

Tornadoes:
Tornadoes may develop on Wednesday over the Florida Keys and the southwestern coast of Florida’s mainland.

Surf:
Rafael is expected to generate swells across much of the western Caribbean in the coming days, leading to hazardous surf and rip current conditions. Residents and visitors should remain cautious in these areas.

Residents in affected regions should closely monitor updates from the National Hurricane Center and their local weather services for further information and safety precautions.