Czech Funding Shortage Threatens Ukraine Shell Supply Initiative

A Czech program to supply Ukraine with 800,000 shells by year’s end risks falling short by over a third unless additional donor funds are secured, according to the Czech foreign minister.

Financial and Delivery Progress
“We have secured funding for 500,000 large-caliber shells, which we plan to deliver by year’s end,” said Jan Lipavský during a press conference in Brussels on Monday.

Out of the 18 countries participating, three have yet to contribute. “With sufficient funding, we can deliver up to 800,000 rounds this year, so financial support is crucial,” Lipavský stated.

Initial Shipments and Increased Deliveries
In June, Ukraine received the first batch of 45,000 shells, with an additional 100,000 scheduled for July and August. “Delivery rates will increase from September,” Lipavský added.

Initiative’s Origin and Purpose
Initiated by Czech President Petr Pavel at the Munich Security Conference in February, the program addresses a severe shell shortage in Ukraine, where Russian forces were previously outgunning Ukraine by ten to one. At that time, the US Congress had not yet approved a $61 billion aid package.

Comparison with EU Program
A separate EU initiative aiming to supply 1 million shells to Ukraine is projected to meet just over half its goal within a year. Unlike the EU plan, which purchases only EU-made ammunition, the Czech initiative sources globally. Supplies have mainly come from countries outside the EU, such as South Korea, South Africa, and Turkey.

Participating Countries and Shortfalls
Countries like the Netherlands, Denmark, Germany, Portugal, Canada, Norway, and Sweden are confirmed participants. However, the Czech government has not disclosed the names of other members or the three countries that have not fulfilled their commitments. These three countries are not solely responsible for the 300,000-shell deficit; Lipavský mentioned that the 800,000 target represents the maximum achievable supply from the global market this year.

Battlefield Impact
Tomáš Kopečný, the Czech government’s coordinator for Ukraine’s reconstruction, stated that the initiative began influencing the battlefield in May. Reports, including those from Russian sources, suggested that in June, Ukrainian forces were “outshooting” Russian troops in some areas of the 685-mile frontline. “Ukrainian forces have gained a numerical advantage in some sectors, but the overall situation still favors the Russians,” Kopečný said.

Evolving Needs and Future Plans
The initiative currently provides Ukraine with 155mm shells and other Soviet-standard ammunition. However, Kopečný noted Ukraine’s needs are changing. “While 155mm ammunition remains necessary, other Soviet-caliber ammunition will also be needed,” he said.

Prague aims to sustain the initiative for several years to support Ukraine against Russia, which has mobilized its economy for maximum production. Participating countries will be invited to pledge additional funds by September to ensure timely shell supplies in 2025.

Financial Hurdles
“The main obstacle is funding,” Kopečný remarked, suggesting that with increased finances, “a few million” shells could be supplied to Ukraine over the medium and long term. He also expressed doubt that the three delinquent countries would eventually contribute.

“We urge our contributing partners to continue their support to secure sustainable, long-term deliveries for Ukraine,” he said.

So far, the consortium has spent nearly €2 billion on sourcing ammunition, predominantly from non-EU countries, reflecting the European defense industry’s decline post-Cold War. The Czech Republic, home to two of Europe’s largest munitions factories, has been instrumental in finalizing ammunition from non-EU suppliers, ensuring battlefield readiness. “An increasing portion of the supply chain is now managed in Europe,” Kopečný concluded.