Ecuador’s Presidential Election Heads to Runoff as Noboa and González Battle for Full Term
Voters to Decide Leadership Amid Crime Surge and Economic Struggles
Ecuador will choose its next president in a runoff election after conservative incumbent Daniel Noboa and leftist lawyer Luisa González secured enough votes on Sunday to advance past 14 other candidates.
The showdown, set for April 13, mirrors the October 2023 snap election that initially propelled Noboa to power for a 16-month presidency. Now, both candidates are vying for a full four-year term, promising to curb the rampant crime that has destabilized the nation in recent years.
Crime and Drug Trafficking Shape the Election
The surge in violence across Ecuador is closely linked to drug trafficking operations stemming from neighboring Colombia and Peru. Crime has reached a point where many voters have been directly affected, making security a key issue in the decision between electing a third president in four years or extending Noboa’s term.
Noboa, an heir to a banana trade empire, and González, a protégée of former President Rafael Correa, were clear front-runners heading into the election.
Election Results So Far
With 80% of ballots counted, Ecuador’s National Electoral Council reported:
- Noboa: 3.71 million votes (44.43%)
- González: 3.69 million votes (44.17%)
The other 14 candidates trailed far behind. Voting is mandatory in Ecuador, and electoral officials confirmed that over 83% of the 13.7 million eligible voters participated.
Security Concerns Still Loom Large
During Noboa’s presidency, the homicide rate dropped from 46.18 per 100,000 people in 2023 to 38.76 per 100,000 in 2024. However, this is still far above the 6.85 per 100,000 recorded in 2019. Crimes such as kidnapping and extortion have surged, leaving many Ecuadorians afraid to leave their homes.
“For me, this president is disastrous,” said Marta Barres, 35, who voted with her three teenage children. “Can he change things in four more years? No. He hasn’t done anything.”
Barres, who pays $25 a month to a local gang to avoid harassment, supports González, believing she can reduce crime and improve the economy.
A Repeat of the 2023 Showdown
Noboa previously defeated González in the October 2023 runoff, which was triggered by then-President Guillermo Lasso dissolving the National Assembly and cutting his own term short. Before launching their campaigns, Noboa and González had brief stints as lawmakers.
To win outright on Sunday, a candidate needed:
- 50% of the vote or
- At least 40% with a 10-point lead
With no clear winner, the race now heads to a second round.
Tough-on-Crime Policies Under Scrutiny
Noboa, 37, started his career by launching an event organizing company at 18, later joining his father’s Noboa Corp., where he managed shipping, logistics, and commerce. His political career began in 2021 when he won a seat in the National Assembly.
Since taking office, Noboa has employed heavy-handed measures to tackle crime, including:
- Declaring a state of internal armed conflict (January 2024), allowing the military to combat organized crime.
- Approving a police raid on Mexico’s embassy in Quito to arrest former Vice President Jorge Glas, a convicted fugitive.
While controversial, his tough stance on crime has earned him support.
“Noboa is the only person hitting organized crime hard,” said retiree Germán Rizzo, after voting for him in Samborondón, a wealthy area near Guayaquil.
González and Correa’s Influence
González, 47, held multiple government roles under former President Rafael Correa, who led Ecuador from 2007 to 2017. Correa, known for socially conservative policies and growing authoritarianism, was convicted in absentia in a 2020 corruption scandal.
González served as a lawmaker from 2021 until May 2023, when Lasso dissolved the National Assembly. She remained relatively unknown until Correa’s party selected her as its candidate in the snap election.
Analysts Weigh In
María Cristina Bayas, a professor at Quito’s University of the Americas, called the results a “triumph” for Correa’s party, noting that pre-election polls had predicted a wider gap between Noboa and González.
Esteban Ron, dean at International University SEK, warned that Noboa must rework his campaign or risk hitting his vote ceiling. He attributed the tight race to the challenges Noboa faced during his term.
Voter Frustration Grows
Waiting to vote in Guayaquil, architecture student Keila Torres was undecided.
“No one can fix crime in Ecuador because corruption runs too deep,” she said.
Having witnessed three bus robberies and narrowly escaping a carjacking in December, she added:
“If I could, I wouldn’t be here. Things are not going to change.”
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