Florida’s 2024 Election: A Test for Republican Dominance or a Democratic Revival?

Ballot Questions Drive Election Buzz

Florida’s upcoming election will test the state’s identity as a Republican stronghold or offer Democrats a chance to gain ground through popular ballot measures on abortion rights and recreational marijuana legalization. These issues, along with new momentum from Vice President Kamala Harris’s campaign, fuel hopes for a Democratic resurgence in a state once viewed as a key battleground. Such a shift could alter Florida’s political landscape with implications extending to national politics.

Once the ultimate swing state, Florida has shifted right in recent years. After former President Barack Obama’s two wins in the state, Donald Trump narrowly secured Florida in 2016 and expanded his margin in 2020. Republicans built on this momentum in 2022, sweeping all five statewide seats by comfortable margins. Now, with high-stakes amendments on abortion and marijuana on the ballot, Democrats aim to energize voters and potentially narrow the gap in a state that increasingly leans conservative.

Amendments on Abortion and Marijuana: A Catalyst for Turnout and Political Shift?

Both abortion and marijuana measures have drawn substantial funding, with millions spent on advertising by proponents and opponents alike. Democrats back these amendments, hoping they will drive turnout and counter Republican dominance. Success could not only hinder Trump’s chances in Florida but also bolster former U.S. Representative Debbie Mucarsel-Powell, who is challenging incumbent Senator Rick Scott.

While Scott’s Senate race is the only statewide contest, the ballot measures themselves could prove decisive. Democratic Party Chairwoman Nikki Fried acknowledges the challenge but argues that passing these amendments would signal real progress for Florida Democrats.

“Look where we were in November 2022,” Fried said. “Nobody anticipated that Florida would be competitive this soon.”

Republican Opposition and Financial Backing

The path to passing the amendments is difficult. Florida amendments require at least 60% voter approval, and Republican-backed groups are investing heavily to influence public opinion. Republican strategist Jamie Miller notes that amendments generally pass when opposition is weak but tend to fail when there is a strong counter-campaign—a reality Democrats now face.

Miller also points out that opposition to Trump and Scott alone may not be enough for Democrats to gain significant traction.

Scott’s Advantage and the Shift in Florida’s Political Landscape

Senator Rick Scott, a former two-term governor, has consistently eked out narrow wins, defeating incumbent Democratic Senator Bill Nelson by a slim margin in 2018. But Florida’s political dynamics have changed. Republicans now hold a million-voter registration advantage. Scott, one of Congress’s wealthiest members, has once again invested millions of his personal wealth into his re-election campaign.

Meanwhile, Mucarsel-Powell has faced funding shortages, with national Democratic support slow to arrive. The focus has largely remained on Scott, a formidable figure in Florida politics.

DeSantis Weighs In

Governor Ron DeSantis, though not up for re-election, has actively campaigned against the abortion and marijuana amendments. Using state resources, DeSantis launched informational campaigns, with the Agency for Health Care Administration creating a website and the Department of Health urging television stations to pull pro-amendment ads.

The abortion amendment would safeguard women’s right to terminate pregnancies up to fetal viability outside the womb. Currently, Florida restricts abortion after six weeks, a period when many women may not yet know they are pregnant.

The marijuana amendment seeks to legalize recreational cannabis, following a successful 2016 vote for medical marijuana. While industry advocates have invested millions in promoting this measure, DeSantis has openly criticized it.

Congressional and Legislative Seats: Small Gains Could Be Big Wins

Few congressional races in Florida are competitive this cycle. However, one notable contest pits Democrat Sandy Kennedy against Republican Mike Haridopolos, who is expected to replace retiring Rep. Bill Posey in a strongly Republican district. While Republicans are likely to retain control of the state legislature, Democrats view incremental victories, like reducing the GOP supermajority, as meaningful progress.

One heavily targeted race involves Republican Sen. Corey Simon, a former NFL player, facing a challenge from civil rights lawyer Daryl Parks. Parks’s high-profile legal career, including his partnership with attorney Ben Crump, has brought national attention to the race.

The Stakes in Florida’s 2024 Election

As November nears, Florida’s election will reflect the nation’s political climate. With issues like abortion, marijuana legalization, and close races between incumbents and challengers, the Sunshine State may signal potential shifts in other conservative regions. Democrats hope that even if they don’t secure statewide offices, passing these amendments and winning legislative seats could mark a first step toward reclaiming Florida as a contested battleground.