French Parliamentary Election: Voters Begin Casting Ballots Amid Economic and Political Tensions

Mainland France voters began casting ballots Sunday in the first round of a significant parliamentary election that could transfer power to nationalist, far-right parties for the first time since World War II.

Election Impact and Voter Discontent

The two-round election, concluding on July 7, may influence European financial markets, Western support for Ukraine, and France’s nuclear arsenal and military forces. Many French voters express frustration over inflation, economic issues, and President Emmanuel Macron’s leadership, which they perceive as disconnected from their lives.

National Rally’s Rising Popularity

Marine Le Pen’s National Rally party has harnessed this discontent, particularly via platforms like TikTok, leading pre-election polls. The left-wing New Popular Front coalition also challenges Macron’s pro-business, centrist alliance, Together for the Republic.

Voting Process and Early Projections

France’s 49.5 million registered voters will elect 577 National Assembly members in two rounds. Voting began early in France’s overseas territories, with mainland polling stations opening at 8 a.m. (0600 GMT) Sunday. Initial projections are expected at 8 p.m. (1800 GMT), with early results later that night.

Unrest in New Caledonia

In New Caledonia, polls closed at 5 p.m. local time due to an extended curfew until July 8. Recent unrest in the territory, driven by the Indigenous Kanak people’s push for independence from France and opposition to Macron’s proposed constitutional changes, resulted in nine deaths.

Participation in Overseas Territories

Voters in other French overseas territories, including Saint-Pierre-et-Miquelon, Saint-Barthélemy, Saint-Martin, Guadeloupe, Martinique, Guyana, French Polynesia, and those voting in embassies and consulates across the Americas, cast their ballots on Saturday.

Macron’s Political Gamble

Macron called the early election following his party’s defeat in the European Parliament election to the National Rally. This aimed to mobilize moderate forces against the far-right. However, pre-election polls indicate growing support for the National Rally, potentially leading to a parliamentary majority.

Potential ‘Cohabitation’ Scenario

If the National Rally secures a majority, Macron would likely appoint 28-year-old National Rally President Jordan Bardella as prime minister, resulting in a power-sharing arrangement known as “cohabitation.” Macron plans to remain in office until his term ends in 2027, but cohabitation would weaken his domestic and international influence.

Uncertain Outcomes and Strategic Alliances

First-round results will show overall voter sentiment but won’t definitively determine the National Assembly’s makeup. The complex voting system and potential alliances between rounds make predictions difficult. Historically, such tactics have kept far-right candidates from power, but Le Pen’s party now enjoys widespread support.

Policy Changes and Market Reactions

Bardella has stated he would halt Macron’s military support for Ukraine. The National Rally, historically tied to Russia, also seeks to limit citizenship rights for those born in France and restrict dual nationality rights, raising human rights concerns. Additionally, spending promises by the National Rally and the left-wing coalition have unsettled markets, sparking concerns about France’s high debt levels.

This election marks a critical juncture for France, with significant potential impacts on its domestic policies and international relations.