Harris Gains Momentum in Polls: Leads Trump by 4 Points in Latest Reuters/Ipsos Survey
Rising Enthusiasm Among Voters
In a significant shift in the U.S. presidential race, Democrat Kamala Harris now leads Republican Donald Trump by 45% to 41% among registered voters, according to a Reuters/Ipsos poll published on Thursday. This substantial lead, particularly among women and Hispanic voters, has energized her campaign ahead of the November 5 election, marking a crucial turning point in the race.
The latest survey reveals growing enthusiasm for Harris, who has widened her lead since the last Reuters/Ipsos poll in late July, where she was ahead by just 1 point. This poll shows Harris with a solid 4-point advantage, reflecting her growing appeal among key demographics. Her lead among women and Hispanic voters has expanded to 13 percentage points, a significant increase from her earlier margins in July.
Trump’s Challenges and Voter Dynamics
While Trump maintains strong support among white voters and men, his lead among voters without a college degree has shrunk from 14 points in July to just 7 points in this latest survey. These findings underscore the intense competition in the U.S. presidential race, particularly after President Joe Biden ended his re-election campaign following a poorly received debate performance on July 21.
Harris has since gained ground against Trump, not only in national polls but also in critical swing states. However, in the seven states where the 2020 election was closest—Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona, North Carolina, Michigan, and Nevada—Trump holds a narrow 45% to 43% lead over Harris among registered voters.
“It’s obvious that running against Harris is more challenging for Trump given the shift in these numbers, but it’s certainly not insurmountable,” said Matt Wolking, a Republican campaign strategist who worked on Trump’s 2020 campaign. Wolking emphasized the need for Trump to stay focused to avoid alienating voters who were dissatisfied with Biden but are now reconsidering their options.
Rising Enthusiasm for Harris
Harris’s formal acceptance of the Democratic nomination has sparked renewed excitement among voters. The poll found that 73% of Democratic registered voters are more enthusiastic about voting in November since Harris entered the race. This surge in voter enthusiasm underscores the significant role each voter plays in shaping the future of the nation.
Aimee Allison, founder of She the People, a liberal group focused on increasing the representation of women of color in politics, highlighted this shift in voter motivation. “We see in this poll that people are more motivated about the future than the past,” Allison said. “They see Kamala Harris as the future, and Republicans see this election as just about Trump. Voters are more likely to be engaged when given the option of ‘more than’ beating Trump.”
Trump supporters also showed strong enthusiasm, with 64% indicating their choice was driven by support for Trump rather than opposition to Harris.
Key Issues: Economy and Abortion
The poll also highlighted key issues driving voter preferences. Trump was favored by 45% of respondents for his approach to managing the U.S. economy, compared to 36% for Harris. On the other hand, Harris held a 47% to 31% advantage over Trump on abortion policy, a critical issue for Democrats, particularly after the conservative U.S. Supreme Court overturned the national right to abortion in 2022.
Concern about the future of abortion rights remains high, with 41% of voters—and 70% of Democrats—expressing worry that the next president might sign a national ban on abortions.
Poll Overview and Future Prospects
The latest Reuters/Ipsos poll gathered responses from 4,253 U.S. adults, including 3,562 registered voters, with a margin of error of 2 percentage points. The survey period partially overlapped with the August 19-22 Democratic National Convention in Chicago, where Harris formally accepted her party’s nomination. As the campaign progresses, it remains to be seen whether Harris can maintain the current level of enthusiasm and support.
Independent candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who suspended his campaign on August 23 while the poll was still being conducted, had the support of 6% of voters in the survey. His departure from the race could further impact the dynamics between Harris and Trump as the election approaches.