Russia’s Struggles in Kursk: A Slow Response to Ukraine’s Bold Incursion
After three weeks of intense fighting, Russia is still grappling to dislodge Ukrainian forces from the Kursk region, marking a surprisingly sluggish and muted response to the first occupation of its territory since World War II.
Russian Manpower and Strategic Priorities
The Kremlin’s inability to swiftly counter the Ukrainian incursion appears to stem from a shortage of manpower and a clear focus on other strategic objectives. With most of Russia’s military resources committed to ongoing offensives in Ukraine, particularly in the Donbas region, President Vladimir Putin seems reluctant to divert troops from these critical battlegrounds.
According to Tatiana Stanovaya, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center, Putin remains fixated on the collapse of the Ukrainian state, believing that achieving this goal would render any territorial losses irrelevant. Despite its symbolic significance, this perspective likely explains the Kremlin’s restrained response to the Ukrainian advance into Kursk.
Strategic Focus on Donbas
Following the illegal annexation of Ukrainian regions such as Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhzhia, and Kherson, Putin has prioritized their complete capture. This strategic focus demands that Kyiv withdraw its forces from these areas as a precondition for peace talks—a demand Ukraine continues to reject. This priority sheds light on Russia’s actions in Kursk.
Nigel Gould-Davies of the International Institute of Strategic Studies notes that Russia is doing everything possible to avoid weakening its offensive in Donbas, even as Ukrainian forces make inroads into Kursk. “Russia currently judges that it can contain the threat on its soil without compromising its most important goal in Ukraine,” Gould-Davies said.
Continued Russian Advances Amidst Ukrainian Incursion
Despite the incursion into Kursk on August 6, Russian troops have continued their slow, grinding advance around the strategic city of Pokrovsk in Donetsk. This ongoing conflict, as highlighted by Nico Lange, senior fellow at the Washington-based Center for European Policy Analysis, underscores Russia’s determination to continue its assault on Pokrovsk without reallocating resources to confront the threat in Kursk.
Putin Downplays Kursk Incursion
In public statements, Putin has portrayed the Ukrainian advance into Kursk as a mere distraction from Russia’s operations in Donetsk. During televised meetings with officials, he emphasized that the Russian offensive in Donetsk has only accelerated despite the situation in Kursk.
Russian State Media’s Narrative
Russian state media has cast the Kursk incursion as evidence of Ukraine’s aggressive intentions, reinforcing the narrative that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 was justified. However, the state-controlled media also appears to be downplaying the significance of the incursion, possibly to avoid rallying domestic opposition against the Kremlin.
A Limited Response
Ukraine’s military claims to control nearly 1,300 square kilometers (about 500 square miles) and roughly 100 settlements in the Kursk region, though these claims could not be independently verified. Observers have noted that Russia’s response to the Ukrainian offensive in Kursk has been limited, relying on units drawn from across Russia, including militia and irregular forces, rather than a coordinated military push.
The reluctance to deploy conscripts to the front lines in Kursk, a decision to avoid public backlash, has left young, inexperienced soldiers vulnerable to Ukraine’s battle-hardened mechanized units. Hundreds of these conscripts have been captured, with 115 exchanged for Ukrainian troops over the weekend.
Challenges Ahead for Ukraine
While Ukraine’s incursion into Kursk has embarrassed the Kremlin and reshaped the battlefield, it also carries significant risks. Diverting some of Ukraine’s most capable forces from the eastern front is a gamble, potentially stretching the country’s already limited resources. Ben Barry of the IISS warns that extending the front line to more than 1,000 kilometers (over 600 miles) could create logistical challenges, with extended supply lines becoming easy targets for Russian forces.
The situation remains fluid, with Ukraine continuing to disrupt Russian logistics in the Kursk region by destroying critical infrastructure, including bridges across the Seym River. However, as Nico Lange notes, Russia’s military is hierarchical and slow to adapt, meaning the true test for Ukraine will come when Russia mobilizes its full force to respond.
As the conflict in Kursk unfolds, the strategic calculations on both sides will continue to evolve, with significant implications for the broader war in Ukraine.