Insurgents Close in on Damascus as Assad’s Regime Faces Unprecedented Pressure
The Syrian civil war has taken a dramatic turn, with insurgents surging across the country and reaching the suburbs of Damascus, Syria’s capital. This development marks the most significant opposition advance in years, casting uncertainty over the future of President Bashar Assad’s regime.
Opposition forces, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), have rapidly seized control of key territories, leaving the government with control over only four of Syria’s 14 provincial capitals: Damascus, Homs, Latakia, and Tartus. In a swift offensive that began on November 27, insurgents captured Aleppo, Hama, and Palmyra, along with large parts of southern provinces, including Quneitra and Sweida.
Damascus on Edge
The insurgents’ presence in the Damascus suburbs of Maadamiyah, Jaramana, and Daraya, as reported by the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, has sparked panic among residents. Thousands are fleeing toward Lebanon, and essential goods in the capital are in short supply, with prices soaring.
“The situation is very strange. We are not used to this,” a resident said anonymously, voicing fears of an impending battle in the capital.
For the first time since 2018, opposition forces have encircled Damascus. Rebel commander Hassan Abdul-Ghani announced the beginning of the “final stage” of their offensive via social media.
Military Struggles
The Syrian army, already stretched thin, has shifted reinforcements to Homs to protect the vital city and maintain a connection between Damascus and the government-controlled coastal regions. Meanwhile, state media denied rumors that President Assad has fled the country, emphasizing he remains in Damascus.
The military described its retreat from southern provinces as a “redeployment,” aiming to establish a defensive perimeter around Damascus. However, their capacity to repel insurgents appears limited, with key allies such as Russia and Hezbollah distracted or weakened by other conflicts.
Diplomatic Urgency
The international community has taken notice of the escalating crisis. The United Nations’ special envoy for Syria, Geir Pedersen, has called for urgent talks in Geneva to implement the 2015 U.N. resolution, which outlines a political transition. Foreign ministers and diplomats from key nations, including Russia, Turkey, and Iran, convened on the sidelines of the Doha Forum to discuss the crisis.
Qatar’s Foreign Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani criticized Assad for missing opportunities to reconcile with the Syrian people during previous lulls in fighting. “Assad didn’t seize this opportunity to start engaging and restoring his relationship with his people,” he said.
Challenges Ahead
The HTS-led insurgency highlights the precariousness of Syria’s territorial integrity and stability. Despite efforts to rebrand as a more moderate force, HTS’s origins in al-Qaida continue to complicate its international standing.
The prospect of Damascus falling to the insurgents raises fears of intensified violence and chaos. The stakes are high, with analysts warning that failure to negotiate a political solution could plunge Syria into deeper turmoil.
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