Tropical Weather Update: Urgent Monitoring of Active Tropical Waves and Convection

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami, FL –  Sun Aug 11, 2024

The National Hurricane Center has issued its latest Tropical Weather Discussion covering North America, Central America, the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and the Atlantic Ocean, extending to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. This update is based on the latest satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis as of 1200 UTC.

Special Features

Continuous Monitoring Required: A broad tropical wave near 45W is moving westward at 10 to 15 knots. This system, which includes a 1010 mb low near 12N47W, produces scattered moderate convection between 10N and 16N, extending from 43W to 51W. The environmental conditions around this system are conducive to further development, and there is a high likelihood that a tropical depression will form in the next 48 hours. The system is expected to move near or over the Leeward Islands shortly, potentially necessitating watches or warnings for the area later today. It could also approach portions of the Greater Antilles by midweek. Residents in these regions should closely monitor this system’s progress.

Tropical Waves

  • Eastern Atlantic: A tropical wave near 23W is moving west at approximately 5 knots. This wave, including a 1011 mb low over the Cabo Verde Islands, produces scattered moderate convection between 08N and 12N from the Guinea-Sierra Leone coast to 24W.
  • Central Caribbean: Another tropical wave near 75W is moving westward at around 10 knots. This wave is causing widely scattered moderate convection south of Jamaica and Hispaniola, extending from 14N to 17N between 68W and 80W.

Monsoon Trough/ITCZ

The monsoon trough, a region of low atmospheric pressure, extends into the Atlantic from the coast of Mauritania near Nouakchott, curving southwestward to 11N30W and continuing westward to 09N54W. Two low-pressure systems associated with tropical waves are embedded along this trough. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection occurs near and south of the trough between 26W and 32W. Additionally, widely scattered moderate convection is observed from 07N to 12N between 51W and 58W.

Gulf of Mexico

A weak stationary front over the Florida Panhandle and New Orleans generates isolated thunderstorms in the northeastern Gulf. A surface trough triggers scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the west-central and southwestern Gulf, including the western Bay of Campeche. A weak surface ridge extends from central Florida to the central Gulf, resulting in gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas of 2 to 4 feet across the southern Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche and Florida Straits. Light to gentle winds with seas of 1 to 3 feet prevail elsewhere in the Gulf.

Caribbean Sea

The Atlantic Ridge near 28N maintains a trade-wind pattern across much of the Caribbean Sea. Convergent trade winds are triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms in the northwestern basin and near the Honduras-Nicaragua border. Moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds and seas of 4 to 6 feet are present across the central and eastern basin, including the Windward Passage. Elsewhere in the Caribbean, gentle to moderate easterly winds with seas of 2 to 4 feet prevail.

Atlantic Ocean

In addition to the broad tropical wave mentioned earlier, a tropical wave in the central Caribbean enhances scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near the southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands. Convergent southerly winds are generating isolated thunderstorms east of northeastern Florida. The Atlantic high-pressure system, a large-scale circulation of winds around a central region of high atmospheric pressure, centered northeast of Bermuda, continues to provide gentle to moderate NE to SE winds and seas of 4 to 5 feet north of 25N, between 30W and the Georgia-central Florida coast. From 14N to 25N between 35W and the Bahamas, moderate to fresh NE to ESE winds with seas of 6 to 9 feet are observed. From the Equator to 14N between 30W and the Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate southerly winds and seas of 4 to 6 feet in mixed moderate swells dominate.

Forecast Summary

Prepare for Severe Weather: The Atlantic high-pressure system will maintain its influence over the region, promoting gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas through Monday. However, as the robust tropical wave progresses, gale conditions are expected to develop in the southeastern Atlantic waters and parts of the extreme northeastern Caribbean beginning early Wednesday morning. Residents and mariners should stay informed about the evolving weather situation, especially in areas prone to the impacts of these developing tropical systems.