BULLETIN: Tropical Depression Fourteen Advisory Number 1

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami, FL
1000 AM CDT Sat, Oct 05, 2024

…TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO…

…FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AND BRING THE RISK OF LIFE-THREATENING IMPACTS TO PORTIONS OF THE FLORIDA WEST COAST NEXT WEEK…

Summary of 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC) Information

  • Location: 22.1° N, 95.1° W
  • About:
    • 210 mi (340 km) NNE of Veracruz, Mexico
    • 350 mi (565 km) W of Progreso, Mexico
  • Maximum Sustained Winds: 35 mph (55 km/h)
  • Present Movement: NNE or 25 degrees at 3 mph (6 km/h)
  • Minimum Central Pressure: 1007 mb (29.74 inches)

Watches and Warnings

  • No coastal watches or warnings are currently in effect.
  • Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, the Florida Peninsula, the Florida Keys, and the northwestern Bahamas should monitor the system’s progress.
  • Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches may be issued for portions of Florida by Sunday.

Discussion and Outlook

At 1000 AM CDT, the center of Tropical Depression Fourteen was located near latitude 22.1° North, longitude 95.1° West. The system is moving north-northeast at around 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow northeastward or east-northeastward motion is expected over the next 24 hours. The system will move more rapidly toward the east-northeast by Monday and Tuesday. On this track, the depression will remain over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico through Sunday night, then move into the south-central Gulf on Monday, eventually approaching the west coast of Florida by midweek.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is expected in the coming days. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today and could reach hurricane strength by early Monday. There is a possibility it could become a major hurricane as it crosses the central and eastern Gulf of Mexico.

The minimum central pressure is estimated at 1007 mb (29.74 inches).

Hazards Affecting Land

Rainfall:

  • The system may bring 2 to 4 inches of rain across parts of the northern Yucatan Peninsula and western Cuba.
  • Heavy rainfall will impact portions of Florida starting Sunday and extending into Monday. More intense rain directly linked to the system is expected from Tuesday through Wednesday. This could result in flash flooding, urban flooding, and localized river flooding.

For more details on forecast rainfall amounts, visit the National Weather Service’s Storm Total Rainfall Graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf.

Surf:

  • The system’s swells will begin to affect the southwestern Gulf Coast today, spreading northward and eastward across much of the coast by early next week.