Tropical Storm Helene Advisory No. 5
National Hurricane Center, Miami, FL
11:00 AM EDT, Tuesday, September 24, 2024

Tropical Storm Helene Forms Over the Northwestern Caribbean Sea

Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches Issued for Parts of the Florida Gulf Coast

Location: 19.5N, 84.3W
Approximate Distance: 180 miles ESE of Cozumel, Mexico | 170 miles SSE of the western tip of Cuba
Maximum Sustained Winds: 45 mph (75 km/h)
Present Movement: NW at 12 mph (19 km/h)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 mb (29.53 inches)

Watches and Warnings:

Changes:

  • Tropical Storm Warning for the Lower Florida Keys, west of the Seven Mile Bridge, and Dry Tortugas.
  • Tropical Storm Watch for the Middle Florida Keys from the Seven Mile Bridge to the Channel 5 Bridge.

Watches/Warnings in Effect:

  • Storm Surge Watch: Indian Pass to Flamingo, Tampa Bay, Charlotte Harbor.
  • Hurricane Watch: Cabo Catoche to Tulum (Mexico), Pinar del Rio (Cuba), Englewood to Indian Pass (FL), Tampa Bay.
  • Tropical Storm Warning: Dry Tortugas, Lower Florida Keys, Grand Cayman, Rio Lagartos to Tulum (Mexico), Pinar del Rio, Artemisa (Cuba).
  • Tropical Storm Watch: Middle Florida Keys, Flamingo to Englewood, Walton Bay County Line.

Forecast Discussion:

Tropical Storm Helene, currently moving northwest at 12 mph, is expected to strengthen. It may reach hurricane strength by Wednesday and become a major hurricane by Thursday. The potential for rapid intensification underscores the seriousness of this storm. The center will pass over the northwestern Caribbean Sea tonight, with an anticipated trajectory toward the Gulf of Mexico by late Thursday.

The storm is projected to bring significant rainfall (4-8 inches, with isolated totals up to 12 inches), storm surge (up to 15 feet in parts of Florida), and tropical storm to hurricane conditions across the warning zones. The potential impact is significant, and the National Weather Service advises residents to closely monitor local updates.