Trump Leads Harris in National Poll, but Battleground States Tell a Different Story
In the latest Fox News national survey, former President Donald Trump holds a slight edge over Vice President Kamala Harris, leading 50% to 48%. This marks a reversal from last month when Harris had a narrow lead. However, in key battleground states, Harris leads by six points, though the advantage is within the margin of error.
Electoral College Dilemma
While Trump leads nationally, Harris remains competitive in pivotal swing states, raising questions about whether she could win the Electoral College while losing the popular vote—a scenario seen in the 2000 and 2016 elections, which favored Republican candidates. Trump’s strength stems from voters in counties he won decisively in 2020, with a 64%-35% lead. Harris, on the other hand, commands 58% support in Biden-leaning counties, but Trump’s dominance in Republican strongholds gives him the overall edge.
Voter Demographics Shift
Trump’s growing support is particularly noticeable among White voters, seniors, and those with college degrees. His lead among White voters has increased to 10 points, up from 4 points last month. Additionally, Trump is hitting record highs among voters aged 65 and older (49%) and those with a college degree (48%). Conversely, Harris faces her lowest support levels among Black voters (67%) and college graduates (49%).
Key Issues Driving the Race
The economy remains the top issue for voters, with 40% citing it as their primary concern. Trump holds an 8-point lead over Harris on economic matters and is gaining ground on immigration (+15), crime (+8), and gun control (+6). Amid ongoing conflicts in the Middle East, Trump has expanded his lead on foreign policy, now ahead by 13 points on issues related to Israel and the war, up from a 7-point lead last month.
Despite these gains, Harris holds an advantage on abortion (+14), climate change (+12), and health care (+8). The two candidates are nearly tied on taxes, Supreme Court nominations, and election integrity.
Gender Gap and Partisan Divide
A 20-point gender gap persists, with men favoring Trump and women supporting Harris. Harris remains strong among new voters, non-MAGA Republicans, and independents. However, more voters identify as Republicans than Democrats, giving Trump a narrow advantage.
Trump’s Favorability Rises, Harris Struggles
Trump’s favorability is improving, with 53% of voters approving of his previous job performance—his highest rating yet. He also outperforms Harris in leadership and the perceived ability to handle the presidency. However, Harris holds the edge on mental soundness (54% vs. 52%).
As the race tightens, voter turnout is expected to play a critical role, with both candidates maintaining solid support within their respective bases.