Trump Leads Harris by 4 Points in Pivotal Florida Presidential Race

According to recent polling among likely voters, including those undecided but leaning toward a candidate, former President Donald Trump holds a narrow 4-point lead over Vice President Kamala Harris in the hotly contested Florida presidential race. This lead, while narrow, is significant as it indicates a potential shift in voter preferences. While Trump has the upper hand overall, Harris leads among independents. She maintains significant support from Black voters, though her numbers fall short of the backing President Biden received in 2020.

Key Demographic Divides

Trump leads Harris among white voters (53% to 45%) and Latinos (58% to 40%). It’s worth noting that while Trump performs better among Latinos than in 2020, his support among white voters has declined. On the other hand, Harris commands strong support from Black voters (76%), though it’s below Biden’s 2020 numbers. These demographic divides are crucial in understanding the current political landscape in Florida.

A significant gender gap persists, with Trump leading among men (55% to 43%) and Harris ahead among women (51% to 48%). This gender gap could have significant implications for the election outcome, as it suggests a potential shift in voter preferences. Age demographics reveal Trump’s strength among Gen X voters (56%) and a slight edge among Gen Z/Millennials (52% to 47%). In comparison, Harris holds a slim lead among Baby Boomers (52%).

Voter Preferences for Election Day

The survey shows that most of Trump’s supporters plan to vote in person on Election Day (64%) or at early voting locations (55%). Meanwhile, Harris enjoys a substantial lead among voters planning to cast mail-in or absentee ballots (64%).

Top Issues for Florida Voters: A Diverse Range of Concerns

Inflation remains the top concern for Florida voters, with 29% citing it as the most pressing issue. Preserving democracy follows at 25%, while immigration, abortion, and healthcare round out the list of critical concerns. Notably, the war in the Middle East and crime rank lower in voter priorities.

Candidate Qualities and Decision-Making

Voters in Florida are split on what they value most in a presidential candidate. Strong leadership and honesty rank equally important (25% each), followed by alignment on issues (18%) and shared values (15%). Trump leads among voters who prioritize strength and issue alignment, while Harris performs better among those valuing honesty and shared values.

U.S. Senate Race: Scott vs. Mucarsel-Powell

In the race for U.S. Senate, incumbent Republican Rick Scott faces a close challenge from Democrat Debbie Mucarsel-Powell. With Scott leading by just two points (50% to 48%), the race remains tight, and both candidates enjoy strong support from their respective bases.

Favorable Ratings and High Election Confidence in Florida

Floridians are almost evenly divided on their views of Trump, with 49% holding a favorable opinion and 47% an unfavorable one. Harris, on the other hand, has a favorability rating of 46%, with 50% viewing her unfavorably. Despite these differences, confidence in the state’s ability to conduct a fair election is high, with 79% of residents expressing trust in their local election officials.

Conclusion

As the Florida presidential race heats up, Trump’s lead over Harris remains slim, with a deeply divided electorate. Both candidates are focusing on key demographic groups and voter concerns, and the state’s 30 electoral votes could prove decisive in the 2024 election.

Poll Methodology

This poll data comes from a survey conducted by the Marist Poll between October 3rd and October 7th, 2024. The survey reached 1,510 adults in Florida, including likely voters. The results have a margin of error of ±3.3 percentage points for all adults, ±3.4 percentage points for registered voters, and ±3.6 percentage points for likely voters. These results reflect voter opinions during that period leading up to the 2024 presidential election.