Presidential Candidates’ Favorability in Tight Race
In Gallup’s latest poll, conducted between September 3 and 15, Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are nearly neck and neck in favorability ratings. Trump holds a 46% favorable rating, while Harris follows closely at 44%. Despite these numbers, both candidates continue to face higher unfavorable ratings. Trump’s unfavorable score is seven points higher than his favorable score, while Harris’ unfavorable rating exceeds her favorable rating by 10 points.
Party Loyalty and Independent Voters
Both candidates maintain solid support within their parties, receiving nearly unanimous positive ratings. However, the numbers tell a different story when it comes to independent voters. While both Trump and Harris have more unfavorable ratings than favorable ratings, Trump holds a slight advantage among independents, with a 44% favorability score compared to Harris’ 35%.
Presidential Favorability Trends Fall Below 50%
This trend of lower-than-50% favorability ratings has become consistent in recent election cycles. Historically, from 1992 until 2016, at least one candidate in each cycle received a majority favorability rating. Since 2016, however, the ratings for both candidates have dipped below this threshold. Notably, Trump’s favorability now surpasses his ratings at similar points in the 2016 and 2020 campaigns. Harris’ rating aligns with Biden’s in 2020 but is significantly better than Hillary Clinton’s rating in 2016.
Vice Presidential Candidates’ Recognition Still Growing
The poll also revealed that the vice-presidential candidates, Democratic Governor Tim Walz of Minnesota and Republican Senator JD Vance of Ohio, remain lesser-known to the public. Around one in five Americans have yet to form an opinion on either. Walz is rated favorably by 41% of Americans, while Vance is viewed favorably by 36%. Both candidates are well-regarded by their party bases, though independents lean more favorably toward Walz (37%) than Vance (30%).
Harris and Biden’s Job Approval Slightly Decline
Kamala Harris’ approval rating is 44%, reflecting her favorability score. This marks a slight decline from her 47% approval rating last month. Similarly, President Joe Biden’s approval has dropped to 39%, down from 43% in July. Biden’s decision to step aside from the presidential race has not significantly altered his approval among party loyalists, but independents and Republicans continue to view him less favorably.
Outlook: A Tight Race Ahead
With both Trump and Harris maintaining favorability ratings below 50%, this election is shaping up to be the third consecutive cycle in which neither candidate receives majority approval from the public. Historically, a higher favorability rating has often signaled victory, but with such close numbers, the race is expected to remain competitive until the final vote.