After months of dedicated negotiations, senior U.S. officials now doubt that a ceasefire and hostage-release deal between Israel and Hamas will be reached before the end of President Biden’s term.
Despite the administration’s persistent and unwavering efforts to broker a resolution, many top officials within the White House, State Department, and Pentagon believe the current framework is unlikely to succeed.
The White House stated that nearly 90 percent of the deal’s text had been agreed upon, but significant obstacles remain. The primary issue lies in disagreements over the ratio of Palestinian prisoners Israel must release in exchange for Hamas-held hostages. This challenge became even more complex after Hamas killed six hostages, including an American citizen. Moreover, the recent two-day confrontation between Israel and Hezbollah, sparked by [specific incident], has further complicated diplomatic efforts, as the likelihood of a full-scale war in the region continues to rise.
Diplomatic Efforts Falter
Negotiators have grown increasingly frustrated with Hamas, which, according to U.S. and Israeli officials, has repeatedly made demands only to backtrack after their terms were accepted. This erratic behavior has raised concerns that Hamas may not be genuinely committed to finalizing an agreement. Further complicating the situation, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has faced criticism, with some accusing him of undermining negotiations to appease the hard-right factions within his governing coalition.
The mood inside the Biden administration and throughout the Middle East has grown increasingly pessimistic. However, there is a glimmer of hope for change. An official from a neighboring Arab country summarized the current state of affairs, stating, “There’s no chance now of it happening. Everyone is in a wait-and-see mode until after the election. The outcome will determine what can happen in the next administration, potentially bringing a fresh perspective and new opportunities for peace.”
The Potential Consequences of the Conflict
The escalating conflict between Israel and Hezbollah poses a significant threat to any remaining hope for a ceasefire in Gaza. With both sides continuing to exchange airstrikes and attacks, the prospect of diplomacy with Hamas seems even more remote. As U.S. officials prepare for what could become a protracted and potentially devastating conflict, the focus appears to be on managing the rapidly intensifying situation. At the same time, the possibility of achieving peace remains out of reach for the foreseeable future.